The Enemy Within

A weakened president falls out with fellow Peronists


TWICE in the past quarter-century mobs of looters have helped to
drive Argentine presidents from office. So it looked ominous when
thousands of people attacked supermarkets and shops in several cities
on December 21st and 22nd. The police restored order, but only after
two people died and scores were arrested.

The looting followed months of sporadic protests against the government of President Cristina Fernández. Labour unions, long a bulwark of her Peronist movement, complain that inflation, unofficially running at 26% in the 12 months to November, is devouring wages.
Transport, banks and hospitals have suffered strikes. The middle class is angry about crime and exchange controls. Ms Fernández’s approval rating stands at 39%, down from 69% a year ago, according to Poliarquía, a pollster.
All this means that some Argentines are starting to think that Ms Fernández will struggle to complete her term in 2015, or at least that she will lose her congressional majority at a legislative election due in
October. But she still has several assets. She exercises discretionary control of previously mandatory transfers to provincial governments.
She has foreign policy—and this week rekindled the row with Britain over the Falklands (Malvinas). The government also dominates the media. Last year Ms Fernández delivered more than 50 national
broadcasts, which all channels must interrupt normal programmes to
carry and which by law are supposed to be restricted to “serious, exceptional situations”. The lure of official advertising, worth $186m in 2011, has tamed much of the press.
But the president’s biggest advantage is a weak and factionalised opposition, divided into scores of groups that polls suggest are collectively less popular than she is. The Radical Civic Union, the
Peronists’ traditional rival, was crippled by having been in government when the economy collapsed in 2001. The Radical candidate managed only 11% of the vote when Ms Fernández won a second term in 2011.
None of the other opposition groups—the socialists, a centrist Civic Coalition and PRO, a conservative outfit led by Mauricio Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires—has managed to build a national organisation.
They show no immediate prospect of uniting. Hermes Binner, the socialist leader, says allying with PRO would be like “mixing water and oil”.
The greater threats to Ms Fernández come from elsewhere. In late December the supreme court thwarted her by upholding an injunction against implementing a new media law, under which officials plan to force the sale of many cable-television franchises owned by Clarín, the country’s biggest private media group and a foe of the president.  In an unusual outburst of public squabbling, the president’s allies
blamed dissident Peronists, including Hugo Moyano, a union chief, of organizing the looting. Mr Moyano in turn accused the government of being behind it. Even if most of the Peronists stick together for the legislative election, thereafter Ms Fernández risks becoming a lame duck. The constitution bars her from seeking a third term in 2015 and she has no political heir of any stature. Some Argentines think that she will seek to abolish term limits after the legislative election. By then, officials hope, the economy will be recovering from its slowdown in 2012. But a constitutional change would require a two-thirds majority in Congress and an opinion poll in September suggested that two-thirds of Argentines oppose it.
Under Ms Fernández and her late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner, Peronism’s left-wing has been dominant for a decade. More conservative Peronists now sense an opportunity. One is José Manuel De La Sota, the governor of Cordoba. Another is Daniel Scioli, the centrist governor of Buenos Aires province, who has reasonable working relations with Mr Macri.
Mr Scioli has said he will run for president in 2015, but only if Ms Fernández cannot. Even if the end of her reign may soon be in sight, she is a potential kingmaker, with the financial resources to make or break candidates. Unless, that is, the hoped-for recovery doesn’t come and the pre-Christmas looting is a portent.