Hugo Chavez: What Happens on 10 January?

On 10 January, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is due to be sworn in after winning a new six-year term in last October's presidential elections.

But as the key date approaches, all the signs suggest that Mr Chavez, who is recovering in Cuba from cancer surgery, will not be fit enough to attend the inauguration at the National Assembly.

The constitution does not state explicitly what happens if the ceremony does not take place on 10 January. And political analysts as well as government and opposition figures have differing interpretations of what that would mean in practice.

For some, the inauguration date could be postponed; others argue that if Mr Chavez is not there in person, a "temporary absence" should be declared (something which they say has in effect already happened).

Others focus on the notion of "absolute absence" and the need for new elections to be held within 30 days (as stated in the constitution).

Absolute absence?

Some analysts and constitutional experts consulted by BBC Mundo say that if Mr Chavez does not appear on 10 January, it may be necessary to declare his "absolute absence" and call elections.

They argue Mr Chavez's mandate would come to an end without having been formally renewed.

Article 233 of the constitution refers to the "absolute absence" of a president. Some analysts argue that a wide interpretation cannot be placed on this article as it does not expressly refer to the non-appearance of the elected president on the day of the inauguration.

Of the conditions listed in Article 233 for "absolute absence", the closest to Mr Chavez's condition could be permanent physical disability, which must be declared by the Supreme Court with the approval of the National Assembly; or abandonment of the office of president, which has to be declared by the legislature itself, and which is unlikely.

Or temporary absence?

Many, especially in the opposition, are betting on the fact that the president's "temporary absence" will be declared. His post should then be filled by the Speaker of the National Assembly, currently Diosdado Cabello, before the end of the mandate of the members of the government.

And finally, there is the argument put forward mainly by Mr Cabello, citing Article 231, which says that if for any reason, the president cannot be sworn in before the National Assembly, the president can take office before the Supreme Court.

For Mr Cabello, in this scenario, the constitution does not specify a time and place. But some constitutional experts cast doubt on this argument as it appears in the same paragraph that refers to the 10 January (implying it would have to take place on that day).

Although Mr Cabello says the opposition is using the 10 January as an argument to get rid of Mr Chavez politically, this does not appear to be their intention.

In fact, an early presidential election would pose a challenge for the opposition, which suffered heavy election losses last year, both in the presidential and state governorship polls.

Analysts like Luis Vicente Leon, president of the polling firm Datanalisis, believe a snap election would be the preference of Vice President and Mr Chavez's preferred successor Nicolas Maduro.

"An election in the very short term will suit Maduro. At the moment, he is a reflection [of Chavez]," Mr Leon wrote on Twitter.

Moreover, the opposition currently has no official presidential candidate.

Henrique Capriles, who lost in October to Mr Chavez but was re-elected governor of the key state of Miranda in December, might be a contender.

But some observers believe his presidential defeat has seriously damaged his chances of running as an opposition unity candidate again.

Venezuelan constitution

• Article 231: The president-elect shall take office on 10 January of the first year of their constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly. If for any reason, (they) cannot be sworn in before the National Assembly, they shall take the oath of office before the Supreme Court.
• Article 233: The absolute absence of the president of the Republic is defined as: his or her death; resignation; removal from office by a Supreme Court judgement; permanent physical or mental disability certified by a medical board appointed by the Supreme Court and approved by the National Assembly; abandoning office, as declared by the National Assembly; and revocation by popular vote.
• When there is an absolute absence of the president-elect before taking office, there shall be a new election by universal, direct and secret vote within the next 30 consecutive days. Pending the election and inauguration of the new president, the president of the National Assembly will assume responsibility for the presidency of the Republic.
• If the absence of the president of the Republic occurs during the first four years of the constitutional period, there shall be a new election by universal, direct and secret vote within 30 consecutive days. Pending the election and inauguration of the new president, the executive vice-president will be responsible for the presidency of the Republic.
• Article 234: When the president is temporarily unable to serve, they shall be replaced by the executive vice-president for a period of up to 90 days, which may be extended by resolution of the National Assembly for an additional 90 days.

(posted by Rachel B)