Latest update : 2016-04-25
Republican hopefuls Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced a deal Sunday not to compete with one another in certain state primaries in an effort to put the brakes on fellow Republican White House rival Donald Trump’s march towards the party’s nomination.
Cruz’s campaign said in a statement that the Texas Senator would focus his efforts on the May 3 primary in Indiana and “in turn clear the path for Governor Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico”, which hold their primaries on May 17 and June 7 respectively.
Kasich’s campaign put out a similar statement saying he would allow Cruz a clear path to victory against Trump in Indiana.
The move is designed to prevent controversial billionaire Trump from gaining the 1,237 delegates required to secure the nomination outright and instead force the nomination contest to go a second ballot at the Republican National Convention in July, where delegates would be allowed to switch sides.
“Our goal is to have an open convention in Cleveland, where we are confident a candidate capable of uniting the party and winning in November will emerge as the nominee,” Kasich’s campaign strategist John Weaver said in a statement.
Too little, too late?
Some of the extreme views espoused by Trump during his campaign – including building a wall along the Mexican border and blocking Muslims from entering the country – have caused consternation among the Republican hierarchy who fear the impact him winning the presidential nomination could have on the party's image and their chances of securing the White House in November's election.
“Having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in November would be a sure disaster for Republicans. Not only would Trump get blown out by [Hillary] Clinton or [Bernie] Sanders, but having him as our nominee would set the party back a generation," Cruz’s campaign manager, Jeff Roe, said in a statement Sunday.
Some Republican strategists have been packing a united effort to thwart Trump for some time, but with the New York-born businessman's already substantial lead in the race for delegates, it could be a case of too little, too late for Cruz and Kasich.
With 845 pledged delegates, Trump is currently just 392 short of the magic number of 1,237. Cruz, his closest rival, has 559 delegates to his name, while Kasich lags well behind with 148.
Trump's easy victory in the key New York primary earlier this month swung momentum in the race for the presidential nomination firmly back in his favour after a string of defeats, notably to Cruz.
He is also expected to do well in a string primaries across five northeastern states – Maryland, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Delaware – all voting on Tuesday.
Trump's reaction to the news of the pact between the two was to ridicule them on Twitter.
"Wow, just announced that Lyin' Ted and Kasich are going to collude in order to keep me from getting the Republican nomination. DESPERATION!," he said.
There may be some truth to Trump's comments. Cruz's campaign has previously dismissed approaches by Kasich’s team to form an anti-Trump alliance. Doing so now is an admission that Cruz has almost no chance of securing more delegates than Trump while both he and Kasich are acknowledging that time is rapidly running out to turn the tide.
But their newfound spirit of cooperation could prove pivotal, particularly in Indiana where there are a potentially significant 57 delegates up for grabs in a winner-takes-all vote.
Both Cruz and Kasich had both been targeting Indiana as a potential turning point in the race. A recent Fox survey in Indiana suggested Trump had 41 percent of support compared to 33 percent for Cruz and 16 percent for Kasich. The pact now potentially gives Cruz enough votes to deny Trump victory in the state.
Contested convention
If Cruz and Kasich's gamble pays off it would see the Republican domination go down to a vote at the July Convention where, thanks to the complicated rules of the Republican primary race, Trump may go in with the most delegates but come away the loser.
The convention sees delegates vote to select the party's presidential nominee. In the first round of voting nearly all are bound to vote according to the primary result of their respective state. But if there is no outright winner in the first vote – likely, if Trump fails to reach 1,237 pledged delegates in the primary – voting then goes to a second round where delegates can switch their votes to another candidate.
Votes can be switched for a variety of reasons, from what delegates think is best for the party's electoral prospects to the outcome of a flurry of back-channel deals and negotiations.
Such a scenario could put Cruz, who has long been canvassing delegates to switch their votes to him in the event of a second ballot, in a strong position to beat Trump to the nomination.
There is even a possibility the nomination could go to none of the current candidates.
A current Republican party rule dictates that a candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination.
But there is nothing to stop the party scrapping the rule, introduced in 2012 and known as Rule 40, before the convention, allowing delegates to vote for someone else entirely.
House Speaker Paul Ryan and former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney have both been mentioned as possible last-minute candidates.
Trump, meanwhile, has been focusing on making sure such a scenario remains purely theoretical.
"We want to put it (nomination) away," Trump said at a campaign rally in Hagerstown, Maryland, on Sunday. "I only care about the first ballot. We're not going for the second and third and fourth and fifth."