Friday, November 14, 2014

Republicans win control of US Senate in blow to Obama

Republicans captured a majority in the US Senate on Tuesday in a sweeping midterm election victory that delivers a sharp rebuke to President Barack Obama's Democrats.

With crucial wins in North Carolina and Iowa, the Republican Party picked up seven Senate seats to claim a majority in the 100-seat upper chamber, TV networks said.

As results trickled in, Republicans were expected to control at least 52 Senate seats after also defeating Democratic incumbents in Montana, Colorado, West Virginia, South Dakota and Arkansas.

The outcome of the elections suggested Obama would face a tougher final two years in office, complicated by greater Republican power, and influence in Washington.

"This is what tends to happen two years before the end of a presidency," said FRANCE 24's Washington correspondent, Philip Crowther. "Any incumbent president will get punished."

Speaking soon after the results were announced, Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell said the elections were an indictment of the president.

"This campaign wasn't about me or my opponent, it was all about a government that people no longer trust to carry out its basic duties," McConnell declared upon securing a sixth term as Kentucky senator.

Key Republican wins

The veteran Republican beat Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in a race that had looked extremely close until McConnell pulled ahead in the polls in recent days.

In Arkansas, Republican challenger Tom Cotton defeated Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor, despite frantic get-out-the-vote efforts by former President Bill Clinton, who hails from Arkansas.

Along with Cotton, Republicans Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia, Mike Rounds in South Dakota, Cory Gardner in Colorado and Steve Daines in Montana also won.

‘REPUBLICANS WON PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING THERE WAS TO WIN’

In some good news for the Democrats, incumbent senator Jeanne Shaheen won re-election in New Hampshire, according to projections by both ABC and NBC, beating back an aggressive campaign from Republican Scott Brown and helping Democratic efforts to keep their Senate majority.

Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana forced her tough re-election fight into a runoff against Republican Bill Cassidy in Louisiana in December.

Obama’s low job approval rating, partisan gridlock in Washington and a US economy that is not growing broadly enough to help many in the middle class were major issues confronting voters in elections for 36 senators, 36 state governors and all 435 members of the House of Representatives.

With Republicans controlling the Senate, McConnell will replace Democrat Harry Reid as Senate majority leader, putting him in a powerful position on Capitol Hill.

Dramatic shift

Seizing the Senate gives Republicans control of both chambers of Congress, constituting the most dramatic political shift since Obama entered the White House in early 2009.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives were up for grabs on Tuesday, with Republicans poised to add 10 or more seats to the 233 they already controlled, thereby accumulating their biggest majority since the late 1940s.

The shake-up in Congress means the president may have to make more concessions to his Republican opponents than he would have wished.

Obama had been expected to take executive action on issues like climate change and immigration reform, bypassing Congress.

But analysts have cast doubt on his ability to push through deeply divisive policies, such as plans to defer deportations for undocumented immigrants.

“He’s going to be looking for a couple of issues where the Republicans just want to give a little,” said Laurie Dundon of the Truman National Defence Project, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

Dundon said a weakened Obama may be able to work with a Republican Congress on expanding free trade deals, “but he won’t be able to touch toxic issues like immigration.”

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published ahead of the vote showed 75 percent of respondents believe the administration needs to “rethink” how it approaches major issues facing the United States.

Some 64 percent said Obama should replace some of his senior staff after the election.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS, AFP)

Mexico's president slams missing student protests

Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on Sunday condemned violent protests over the apparent massacre of 43 students after demonstrators set fire to the door of his ceremonial palace in Mexico City on Saturday night.

Tens of thousands of Mexicans have taken to the streets to protest the government’s handling of the case of the missing students, and last night protesters in central Mexico City set fire to the door of the National Palace.

“It’s unacceptable that someone should try to use this tragedy to justify violence,” Pena Nieto told reporters at the airport in Anchorage, Alaska where he was en route to China. “You can’t demand justice while acting with violence.”

The students were abducted by corrupt police in southwestern Mexico in September. Though the government said on Friday it looked as though the students had been killed, then incinerated by gangsters working with the police, it stopped short of confirming their deaths for lack of definitive evidence.

Pena Nieto’s trip to China has infuriated protesters and relatives of the students, who believe he cares more about Mexico’s business interests than trying to deal with the gang violence that has ravaged much of the country for years.

The trip to China has faced problems since before it began.

On Thursday night, Mexico abruptly canceled a $3.75 billion contract to build a high-speed train line that it had awarded to a Chinese-led consortium after opposition lawmakers accused the government of rigging the process.

The group led by the China Railway Construction Corp were the sole bidders for the project and lawmakers said the government had acted to help the consortium and its Mexican partners, some of which have close ties to the president and the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.

The government denied the accusations.

Grupo Higa was one of the Mexican partners in the rail consortium and on Sunday a local news site noted that a subsidiary of the company, Ingenieria Inmobiliaria del Centro, had built a $7 million seven-bedroom house for Pena Nieto and his family just before he became president.

The house, which features marble floors and underground parking, has never been disclosed in financial records that Pena Nieto has made public and it is in fact still owned by the Grupo Higa subsidiary, the report from Aristegui Noticias said.

However, the president’s office said in a statement on Sunday that the house was acquired in 2012 from Ingenieria Inmobiliaria del Centro by Pena Nieto’s wife, actress Angelica Rivera, and that she spoke openly about the property last year.

Separately, China on Sunday said it believed China Railway Construction Corp had followed Mexico’s bidding rules and requirements and it hopes Chinese companies will CONTINUE

to participate in Mexican infrastructure projects.

Another protest took place on Sunday, which included people who had walked more than 100 miles to Mexico City from Iguala, Guerrero, where the missing students were abducted. The protest congregated peacefully in the central Zocalo square.

(REUTERS)

US and China reach ‘historic’ carbon emission deal

President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping sought to play down points of tension between their two nations Wednesday, unveiling a flurry of agreements on climate change, military cooperation and trade. Yet areas of discord between the world's largest economies still bubbled to the surface. Obama pressed Xi on human rights and the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, while Xi repeatedly reminded his American guest that his nation wants to be seen as an equal to the United States. "I believe that President Xi and I have a common understanding on how the relationship between our two countries should move forward,'' Obama said as he closed a three-day trip to China. "Where we have disagreements, we will be candid about our intentions, and we will work to narrow those differences where possible.'' The two leaders addressed reporters in a rare joint news conference for the Chinese leader, whose government keeps tight control on media in the country. Xi first appeared to ignore a question posed to him from an American reporter who asked about restrictions placed on U.S. news organizations operating in the country, then later suggested it was unfavorable coverage that had led to the crackdowns. Obama has made significant personal investments in his relationship with Xi, including a two-day summit at a California estate last year. U.S. officials have seen Xi as a potentially new kind of Chinese leader, with closer ties to the U.S. than other Chinese officials _ he spent time in Iowa as an exchange student _ and an ease with public appearances that eluded his predecessor, Hu Jintao. Yet Xi has consolidated power since taking office, deepened China's provocative maritime disputes with its neighbors and stands accused of CONTINUINGcyberattacks against the United States. U.S. officials have new concerns over the potential for a crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong and are warily watching Beijing strengthen ties with Moscow as the West distances itself from Russia. For its part, Beijing remains skeptical of Obama's intentions in Asia, seeing his efforts to bolster U.S. economic ties in the region as a way of countering China's rise. Speaking through a translator, Xi said "the Pacific Ocean is broad enough'' to accommodate the prowess of both the U.S. and China. Obama's domestic political weakness, particularly following the Democrats' defeats in last week's midterm elections, has also sparked questions in China about whether the U.S. president can deliver on potential international agreements. In the days leading up to Obama's visit, a newspaper with ties to the Chinese government said the American public had ``downgraded'' Obama and grown tired of his "banality.'' The U.S. president dismissed such criticism in China, saying, "I am always working on the assumption that the press gives me a hard time wherever I go, whether in the United States or China.'' Obama and Xi did announce a series of agreements through their two days of talks, including a significant joint announcement on greenhouse gases that was the result of months of secret discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials. As part of the new agreement, Obama announced that the U.S. would move much faster in cutting pollution, with a goal to reduce emissions by 26 percent to 28 percent by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. Xi, whose country's emissions are still growing as it builds new coal plants, didn't commit to cut emissions by a specific amount. Rather, he set a target for China's emissions to peak by 2030, or earlier if possible. Obama and Xi also announced plans to have their militaries give each other more guidance about their activities in the Pacific. There was also an agreement to move forward on trade talks to reduce tariffs on high-tech goods, as well as a deal to extend the lengths of visas GRANTED to U.S. and Chinese citizens. Human rights has long been an area where the U.S. and China have been at odds. Obama said he broached the topic in his conversations with Xi, saying universal freedoms are essential ``whether it is in New York or Paris of Hong Kong.'' Chinese officials have suggested the U.S. has played a role in directing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China. Obama denied those charges Wednesday, saying he had been "unequivocal'' in reassuring Xi that the U.S. "had no involvement in fostering the protests that took place there.'' In another nod to China's sovereignty, Obama reaffirmed his support for a "one China'' policy that regards Taiwan as part of China. Xi also waded into the issue of human rights, saying his country has made "enormous progress'' on the matter. "That is a fact that is recognized by all people in the world,'' he said.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Protesters over missing students in Mexico burn state assembly

CHILPANCINGO Mexico Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:48am EST

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Protesters set fire to Mexico's Guerrero congress over missing students

ANALYSIS & OPINION

China and the United States Are Preparing for War

ARGUMENT

China and the United States Are Preparing for War

Despite the Obama-Xi handshake deal, the probability of confrontation will only heighten as long as the PLA remains a black box.

BY MICHAEL PILLSBURY
NOVEMBER 13, 2014

At a Nov. 12 news conference in Beijing, General Secretary of the Communist Party Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obamaagreed to notify the other side before major military activities, and to develop a set of rules of behavior for sea and air encounters, in order to avoid military confrontations in Asia. "It's incredibly important that we avoid inadvertent escalation," Ben Rhodes, a U.S. deputy national security advisor, was quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying. An "accidental circumstance," he said, could "lead into something that could precipitate conflict."

Should we really be worried about war between the United States and China? Yes. Over the last four decades of studying China, I have spoken with hundreds of members of China's military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), and read countless Chinese military journals and strategy articles. Chinese military and political leaders believe that their country is at the center of American war planning. In other words, Beijing believes that the United States is readying itself for the possibility of a conflict with China -- and that it must prepare for that eventuality.

Tensions are high not just because of Beijing's rapidly expanding military budget, or because the United States continues to commit an increasingly high percentage of its military assets to the Pacific as part of its "rebalance" strategy. Rather, the biggest problem is Chinese opacity. While it's heartening to hear Xi agree to instruct the PLA to be more open with regard to the United States, it is doubtful this will lead to any real changes.

Washington is willing to share a substantial amount of military information with China, in order to "reduce the chances of miscommunication, misunderstanding or miscalculation," as then U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said during a January 2011 trip to Beijing. But the

Chinese leadership, which benefits from obfuscation and asymmetric tactics, refuses to communicate its military's intentions.

Chinese leadership, which benefits from obfuscation and asymmetric tactics, refuses to communicate its military's intentions.

Despite repeated entreaties from American officials, Beijing is unwilling to talk about many key military issues -- like the scope and intentions of its rapid force buildup, development of technologies that could cripple American naval forces in the region, and its military's involvement in cyberattacks against the United States -- that would lower friction between the two sides. And sometimes, as in 2010 after U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, Beijing breaks off military-to-military contacts altogether -- leading to an especially troubling silence.

As a result, there is a growing mistrust of China among many thoughtful people in the U.S. government. Chinese military officers have complained to me that journals of the American war colleges now feature articles on war with China, and how the United States can win. A February 2014 article, for example, in the U.S. Naval Institute'sProceedings magazine, entitled "Deterring the Dragon," proposes laying offensive underwater mines along China's coast to close China's main ports and destroy its sea lines of communications. The article also suggests sending special operations forces to arm China's restive minorities in the country's vast western regions.

But China is doing the same thing. In 2013, Gen. Peng Guangqian and Gen. Yao Youzhi updated their now-classic text, The Science of Military Strategy, and called for Beijing to add to the quality and quantity of its nuclear weapons, in order to close the gap between China and both Russia and the United States. Even Xi's "new model" of great-power relations seems to preclude arms control negotiations, requiring the United States to yield to the inevitability of China's rise.

Many people outside the Pentagon may be surprised by just how many senior American officials are worried about a war with China. These include no less than the last U.S. two secretaries of defense, and a former secretary of state. In the concluding chapter of Henry Kissinger's 2011 book, On China, he warns of a World War I-style massive Chinese-American war. "Does history repeat itself?" he asks.

Over at least the last decade, on several occasions the United States has pressed China to be more forthright about its military intentions and capabilities. In April 2006, after a meeting between President George W. Bush, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and Chinese President Hu Jintao, both governments announced the start of talks between the strategic nuclear force commanders on both sides. This move would have been extremely important in demonstrating openness about military intentions. But the PLA dragged its feet, and the talks never started.

In a September 2012 trip to Beijing, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta tried to persuade Beijing to enter military talks. Like his predecessor Gates, Panetta called for four specific areas of strategic dialogue: nuclear weapons, missile defense, outer space, and cybersecurity. But the Chinese objected, and again the talks never happened.

Sure, Beijing could follow through on the agreements announced during Obama's recent trip. But I'm skeptical. One of the biggest advantages China has over the United States is the asymmetry of military knowledge. Why would they give that up?

JOHANNES EISELE/AFP

U.S. aid to Central America is successfully combatting crime and violence

U.S. aid to Central America is successfully combatting crime and violence: LAPOP study

by Jim Patterson | Posted on Thursday, Oct. 30, 2014 — 2:40 PM

(iStock)

Neighborhoods in El Salvador, Panama, Guatemala and Honduras given the benefit of community-based crime and violence prevention programs reported murders and extortions were 51 percent lower over a three-year period than they would have been in the absence of the programs, according to a survey and analysis conducted by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University.

The United States has been funding crime and violence prevention programs in the four countries through USAID, the lead U.S. government agency that works to end extreme global poverty and enable resilient, democratic societies to realize their potential. USAID engaged LAPOP to do the survey and analysis.

Results, along with recommendations for the future, were released Oct. 30 at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. Presenting were Mitchell A. Seligson, founder and senior adviser of LAPOP and Centennial Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt; and Elizabeth Zechmeister, director of LAPOP and associate professor of political science at Vanderbilt.

Seligson and Zechmeister standing in front of map

Mitch Seligson and Elizabeth Zechmeister (Vanderbilt)

“The evaluation is part of a broader effort in community-based crime prevention, in contrast to the traditionally more common get-tough law enforcement approach to addressing the widespread crime and violence permeating Central America,” Seligson said. “The crime prevention approach attempts to address the root causes of crime, rather than deal with it after it has become endemic, with interventions such as youth outreach centers and workforce training to prevent youths from joining gangs, and facilitated coordination between community stakeholders, municipal crime and violence prevention committees and law enforcement officials.”

The crime statistics are not based on police reports. Instead, they are based on extensive survey data gathered in the treatment and control communities via probability samples of voting-age adults.

Other results of the survey analysis show substantial improvements when compared to the expected outcome in the absence of the programs:

35 percent decline in reports of avoiding walking though dangerous areas
25 percent decline in reports of sales of illegal drugs
19 percent decline in reported robberies
18 percent increase in community organization to prevent crime
14 percent decline in reported problem of young people in gangs
13 percent decline in reported problem of gang fights
11 percent decline in perception of insecurity when walking alone at night
9 percent increase in trust in the national police
8 percent decline in reported problem of youth loitering
7 percent increase in satisfaction with democracy
5 percent increase in satisfaction with police performance
5 percent decline in perception of insecurity
3 percent increase in interpersonal trust

In addition to continuing the assistance programs through USAID, the LAPOP researchers’ suggestions include:

Establish more community-based violence prevention programs, prioritized over traditional law enforcement approaches.
Increase family support by expanding pre-school, after-school and summer vacation child care and making them available for free or only symbolic cost.
Use the classroom to raise awareness of physical and sexual abuse and reduce such abuse through expanding presence of school psychologists, educating school directors on steps to take to report abuse and other measures.
Increase security at schools by increasing police presence and routine backpack checks for weapons and narcotics.
Improve community organization by making sure community leaders have phones, web addresses and cell phone numbers of police officers in their areas and provide more assistance to community-based councils for the prevention of crime.
Train and improve police forces so they are more responsive to community leader’s reports of criminal activity and ensure police officers get long-term assignments in communities so relationships can be developed.

For more information, see http://www.vanderbilt.edu/lapop/carsi-study.php.